In other circumstances, the sportsbook may simply reduce the vig to encourage bets on a particular side of the matchup. So, we’d expect to see the spread in our case study decrease, likely landing around New England -3.5. To mitigate their own risk, oddsmakers will adjust the betting line if one side is receiving an uneven proportion of the wagers, or if something significant happens to a key player.įor example, if Cam Newton rolls an ankle the day before the game and is unable to suit up, the Patriots may struggle to score touchdowns. Point spreads are subject to change based on where the money is going and weekly injury reports. This is because they lost by fewer points than the point spread indicated. Notice that in two of the above examples, Kansas City lost the game, but won against the spread. The team who covered the spread is displayed in bold. Here are a couple of mock outcomes for our matchup, each with a varying margin of victory. For example, if the Chiefs only lose by 3 points, you would win if you bet on Kansas City. If, after doing so, they have more points than the Patriots, then they “covered.” So, in order to win your bet, the Chiefs just cannot lose the game by 8 points or more.

This means you add 7.5 points to their final score when the game concludes. While New England is “laying” 7.5 points, Kansas City is “getting” 7.5 points.

Odds of nfl home teams covering spread